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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/25 11:39

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Light buying across the grain markets to open the week.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 70 points higher. The 
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 24 points lower. Energies 
are mixed, with crude 0.10 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower, but off the 
early lows. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 8.80. 


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with wet weather and large net 
short fund position noted for the higher trade. Midwest weather issues are 
hindering demand and movement with short-term moisture issues to continue with 
a few wet-spring outlooks. South America crop progress should remain uneventful 
for now. Ethanol margins have improved with production losses due to flooding, 
and the start of spring driving season with ethanol futures edging slightly 
lower this morning. Corn basis will be mixed depending greatly on local 
conditions. The slow start to fieldwork will continue to be watched in the near 
term with fertilizer logistics likely to be a major issue. The weekly export 
inspections improved at 995,997 metric tons. Trade will be watched for further 
China announcements are made. On the May chart support is the 20-day at $3.71 
1/2 with resistance at the 100-day at $3.83 3/8 then the 200-day at $3.85.


   Soybean trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday after two-sided trade 
overnight. Meal is flat to $1 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. Trade 
news has been sparse in recent days illustrated by the mixed action. South 
America weather should maintain the recent pattern in the coming days with 
Brazil harvest moving along and normal progress in Argentina. Crush margins 
remain strong overall with meal still hanging near $315 a ton with support 
showing up in recent days. The weekly export inspections were at 857,970 metric 
tons. On the May chart support is the $9.04 1/8 10-day moving average, with the 
20-day at $9.05 7/8 the next level up, which we are just above at midday, with 
the 100-day at $9.17 the next round up. 


   Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents higher at midday with the winter wheats leading 
with light buying building during the day session. Trade is still focused on 
easing oversold conditions with the large fund short remaining in place with 
planting season coming up for spring wheat, and weather likely to remain 
challenging in the north. Export news has been quieter lately with most of the 
focus on high protein wheat. Warm Plains weather will pull the crop out of 
dormancy with generally good conditions so far, and plenty of moisture and more 
on tap this week. Wheat basis varies widely on product and location. Weekly 
export inspections remain range bound at 340,398 metric tons. On the May Kansas 
City chart support is the 10-day at $4.41 that we closed above midweek with the 
20-day at $4.40 below that, with the upper Bollinger band the next round up at 

    David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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